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Research
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Fields of Interest
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Monetary economics,
macroeconomic modelling, applied time-series analysis
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Work in Progress
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“Gauging the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus
Packages in the Euro Area”, with Roland Straub and Mathias Trabandt, mimeo, European Central
Bank.
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“Forecasting with DSGE-VAR Models”, with Kai
Christoffel and Anders Warne, mimeo, European
Central Bank.
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“Risks to Price Stability and the Zero Lower
Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: A Real-Time Assessment for the Euro Area”,
with Anders Warne, in progress, European Central Bank.
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Publications in Refereed Journals
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“Fiscal Policy and the Great Recession in
the Euro Area”, with Roland Straub and Mathias Trabandt, American Economic Review, Papers and
Proceedings, forthcoming.
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“Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural
Models”, with Christopher Erceg, Charles
Freedman, Davide Furceri,
Michael Kumhof, René Lalonde,
Douglas Laxton, Jesper
Lindé, Annabelle Mourougane,
Dirk Muir, Susanna Mursula, Carlos de Resende, John Roberts, Werner Roeger,
Stephen Snudden, Mathias Trabandt and Jan in’t Veld, American
Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4(1), 22-68, 2012.
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“DSGE Models and Their Use at the ECB”,
with Kai Christoffel, Roberto Motto, Massimo Rostagno and Frank Smets, Journal of the Spanish Economic
Association, 1(1-2), 51-65, 2010.
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“Fiscal Consolidation in the Euro Area:
Long-Run Benefits and Short-Run Costs”, with Matthias Mohr and Roland
Straub, Economic Modelling,
25(5), 912-932, 2008.
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“Tax Reform and Labour-Market Performance
in the Euro Area: A Simulation-Based Analysis Using the New Area-Wide
Model”, with Peter McAdam and Roland Straub, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 32(8), 2543-2583,
2008.
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“Identifying the Influences of Nominal and Real
Rigidities in Aggregate Price-Setting Behavior”,
with Andrew Levin and Kai Christoffel, Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(8), 2439-2466, 2007.
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“Does Government Spending Crowd in Private
Consumption? Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area”, with Roland
Straub, International
Finance, 8(3), 435-470, 2005.
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“The Performance and Robustness of Interest-Rate
Rules in Models of the Euro Area”, with Ramón Adalid-Lozano, Peter McAdam
and Stefano Siviero, International
Journal of Central Banking, 1(1), 95-132, 2005.
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“Exchange-Rate Policy and the Zero Bound
on Nominal Interest Rates”, with Volker Wieland, American
Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 94(2), 80-84, 2004.
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“Price Stability and Monetary Policy
Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero”, with Athanasios Orphanides and
Volker Wieland, Advances in
Macroeconomics, 4(1), Article1, http://www.bepress.com/bejm/advances/vol4/iss1/1,
2004.
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“Inflation
Persistence and Robust Monetary Policy Design”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and
Control, 31(1), 111-140, 2007.
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“Persistence,
the Transmission Mechanism and Robust Monetary Policy”, with
Ignazio Angeloni and Frank Smets, Scottish
Journal of Political Economy, 50(5), 527-549, 2003.
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“The
Zero-Interest-Rate Bound and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary
Policy in Japan”, with Volker Wieland, Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(5), 1071-1101, 2003.
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“Data
Uncertainty and the Role of Money as an Information Variable for Monetary
Policy”, with Andrew Levin and Volker Wieland, European Economic Review, 49(4),
975-1006, 2005.
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“A
Small Estimated Euro Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal
Rigidities”, with Volker Wieland, European Economic Review, 49(5), 1081-1104, 2005.
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“Asymptotic
Confidence Bands for the Estimated Autocovariance
and Autocorrelation Functions of Vector Autoregressive Models”, Empirical Economics, 30(1), 65-75,
2005.
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“The
Demand for M3 in the Euro Area”, with Juan-Luis Vega, Journal of Applied Econometrics,
16(6), 727-748, 2001.
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Other Publications
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“Forecasting with DSGE Models”, with Kai Christoffel
and Anders Warne, in Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry (eds), Handbook
of Economic Forecasting, Oxford University Press, Oxford, Chapter 4,
89-127, 2011.
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“When Does Fiscal Stimulus Work?”, with
Juha Kilponen and Mathias Trabandt, Research Bulletin No. 10, European
Central Bank, June 2010.
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“International Transmission and Monetary
Policy Cooperation”, with Giovanni Lombardo, Frank Smets and Roland
Straub, in Jordi Galí and Mark Gertler (eds), International
Dimensions of Monetary Policy, NBER, Cambridge, M.A., Chapter 3,
175-192, 2010.
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“A Real-Time DataBase
for the Euro Area”, with Matteo Ciccarelli and Jérôme Henry, Research
Bulletin No. 5, European Central Bank, December 2006.
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“How Do VAT Changes Affect the Economy? An
Illustration Using the New Area-Wide Model”, with Peter McAdam, Research
Bulletin No. 4, European Central Bank, April 2006.
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Discussion of “The New-Keynesian Phillips
Curve When Inflation Is Non-Stationary: The Case of Canada” by Nicoletta Batini and Bergljot Bjørnson Barkbu, in Bank of Canada (ed.), Issues in Inflation Targeting, Bank of Canada, Ottawa, 82-87,
2006.
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Extended summary of “The Zero-Interest-Rate Bound and the
Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan”, with
Volker Wieland, in NBER (ed.), 2003
Japan Conference: A Summary of the Papers, National Bureau of
Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, 8-9, 2004.
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“Downward
Nominal Wage Rigidity and the Long-Run Phillips Curve: Simulation-Based
Evidence for the Euro Area”, in Otmar Issing (ed.), Background
Studies for the ECB’s Evaluation of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, European Central Bank,
Frankfurt am Main, 127-138, 2003.
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“Zero
Lower Bound: Is It a Problem in the Euro Area?”, in Otmar Issing (ed.), Background Studies for the ECB’s
Evaluation of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, European Central Bank,
Frankfurt am Main, 139-155, 2003.
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“Inflation
versus Monetary Targeting in a P-Star Model with Rational Expectations”,
in BIS (ed.), Topics in Monetary
Policy Modeling, BIS Conference Papers,
Vol. 4, Bank for International Settlements, Basle,
215-234, 1998.
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Intertemporale
Substitution in der Realen Konjunkturtheorie:
Eine empirische Untersuchung unter Verwendung simulationsgestützter
indirekter Schätz- und Testverfahren, Frankfurt am Main, 1997
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“Das Sattelpunktproblem in der monetären Wechselkurstheorie”, WiSt,
24(8), 430-433, 1995.
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European Central Bank Working Papers
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“Fiscal Policy and the Great Recession in
the Euro Area”, with Roland Straub and Mathias Trabandt, ECB Working Paper
No. 1429, March 2012. An extended version was
prepared for the Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association in
Chicago, January 2012.
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“Forecasting with DSGE Models”, with Kai
Christoffel and Anders Warne, ECB Working Paper
No. 1185, May 2010.
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“The New Area-Wide Model of the Euro Area:
A Micro-Founded Open-Economy Model for Forecasting and Policy Analysis”,
with Kai Christoffel and Anders Warne, ECB Working Paper
No. 944, October 2008.
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“Fiscal Consolidation in the Euro Area:
Long-Run Benefits and Short-Run Costs”, with Matthias Mohr and Roland
Straub, ECB
Working Paper No. 902, May 2008.
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“International Transmission and Monetary
Policy Cooperation”, with Giovanni Lombardo, Frank Smets and Roland
Straub, ECB
Working Paper No. 858, January 2008.
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“Tax Reform and Labour-Market Performance
in the Euro Area: A Simulation-Based Analysis Using the New Area-Wide
Model”, with Peter McAdam and Roland Straub, ECB Working Paper
No. 747, April 2007.
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“Does Government Spending Crowd in Private
Consumption? Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area”, with Roland
Straub, ECB
Working Paper No. 513, August 2005. Earlier versions were circulated
under the title “Non-Ricardian Households and Fiscal
Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area”.
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“The Performance and Robustness of Interest-Rate
Rules in Models of the Euro Area”, with Ramón Adalid-Lozano, Peter McAdam
and Stefano Siviero, ECB Working Paper
No. 479, April 2005.
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“Identifying the Influences of Nominal and Real
Rigidities in Aggregate Price-Setting Behavior”,
with Andrew Levin, ECB Working Paper
No. 418, November 2004. Revised version
(with additional results for the United States), November 2006.
·
“Exchange-Rate Policy and the Zero Bound
on Nominal Interest Rates”, with Volker Wieland, ECB Working Paper
No. 350, April 2004. An extended
version was prepared for the Annual Meeting of the American Economic
Association in San Diego, January 2004.
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“Inflation
Persistence and Robust Monetary Policy Design”, ECB Working Paper
No. 290, November 2003. Substantially revised
version, October 2005.
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“Downward
Nominal Wage Rigidity and the Long-Run Phillips Curve: Simulation-Based Evidence
for the Euro Area”, ECB Working Paper
No. 270, September 2003.
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“Zero
Lower Bound: Is It a Problem in the Euro Area?”,
ECB Working
Paper No. 269, September 2003.
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“Persistence,
the Transmission Mechanism and Robust Monetary Policy”, with
Ignazio Angeloni and Frank Smets, ECB Working Paper
No. 250, August 2003.
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“Price
Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates
are Bounded at Zero”, with Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland, ECB Working Paper
No. 231, May 2003. Also available as CEPR
Discussion Paper No. 3892, May 2003.
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“The
Zero-Interest-Rate Bound and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary
Policy in Japan”, with Volker Wieland, ECB Working Paper
No. 218, March 2003. Also available as CEPR
Discussion Paper No. 3895, May 2003.
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“Inflation
Dynamics and International Linkages: A Model of the United States, the
Euro Area and Japan”, with Volker Wieland, ECB Working Paper
No. 181, September 2002. Also available as FED
International Finance Discussion Papers, 2000-745, December 2002.
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“Data
Uncertainty and the Role of Money as an Information Variable for Monetary
Policy”, with Andrew Levin and Volker Wieland, ECB Working Paper
No. 84, November 2001. Also available as FED
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2001-54, Federal Reserve
Board, November 2001. Revised version available as CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3812, March 2003.
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“A
Small Estimated Euro Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal
Rigidities”, with Volker Wieland, ECB Working Paper
No. 30 (with technical appendix), September 2000. Revised version
available as CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3572,
September 2002.
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“Asymptotic
Confidence Bands for the Estimated Autocovariance
and Autocorrelation Functions of Vector Autoregressive Models”, ECB Working Paper
No. 9, February 2000. Substantially revised version, July 2003.
·
“The
Demand for M3 in the Euro Area”, with Juan-Luis Vega, ECB Working Paper
No. 6, September 1999.
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Other Working Papers and Earlier Work
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“Effects of Fiscal
Stimulus in Structural Models”, with Christopher Erceg, Charles Freedman, Davide Furceri, Michael Kumhof,
René Lalonde, Douglas Laxton,
Jesper Lindé,
Annabelle Mourougane, Dirk Muir, Susanna Mursula, Carlos de Resende,
John Roberts, Werner Roeger, Stephen Snudden, Mathias Trabandt and Jan in’t
Veld, IMF Working
Paper No. 10/73, March 2010. Substantially revised version, July 2011.
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“Estimation of the Euro Area Output Gap
Using the NAWM”, with Frank Smets and Igor Vetlov, Bank of
Lithuania Working Paper No. 5, June 2009.
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“Evaluating
Monetary Policy Rules in a P-Star Model with Rational Expectations Using
Indirect Inference”, manuscript, Deutsche Bundesbank,
May 1998.
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“Intertemporal Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in an
RBC Model”, Discussion Paper of the Research Group of the Deutsche
Bundesbank 2/98, April 1998.
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“A
Further Note on Computing Competitive Equilibria
in Linear-Quadratic Models”, manuscript, Institute of Statistics
and Econometrics, University of Kiel, 1995.
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“Eine Einführung
in die Analyse linearer sattelpunktstabiler
Systeme”, Working Paper No. 66,
Institute of Statistics and Econometrics, University of Kiel, 1993.
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